Two MVPs share the spotlight, a 2,000-yard threat debuts in new colors, and the first Sunday night spread of the year sits under a field goal. Baltimore heads to Orchard Park to face Buffalo on September 7, kickoff 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock. Books have Baltimore -1.5 with a total around 51.5, and the most bet props circle Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Derrick Henry. For a marquee opener, that’s the sweet spot: proven stars, clear roles, and lines that haven’t drifted wildly.
This is the third time these teams see each other in less than a calendar year. Baltimore rolled in a Week 4 meeting last season, but Buffalo answered in January with a 27-25 Divisional Round win that landed exactly on 52 points. Same quarterbacks, new wrinkles, and now a back with 1,921 yards last year powering the Ravens.
As of this week, key numbers look like this: Jackson’s passing yardage sits near 233.5, Allen’s rushing yardage around 33.5, and Henry’s rushing yardage roughly 80.5 (bumped to 82.5 at some shops). Zay Flowers leads receivers near 58.5 receiving yards, and James Cook’s rush number is around 54.5. Passing TD props are pegged at 1.5 for both QBs, with the usual juice shading toward the under in a number of spots. The setup invites a simple question: will this game be decided on the ground more than the total suggests?
Week 1 often brings conservative play-calling early, especially with quarterbacks who carry big-season expectations. Coaches will take the explosive play when it’s there, but both Baltimore and Buffalo are comfortable using tempo, motion, and the run game to build rhythm. That matters in Buffalo, where September night conditions are usually calmer than winter, making scheme and matchups more important than weather drift.
Odds and context for the opener
The market is treating this like a coin flip with a small lean to Baltimore. That makes sense. Baltimore’s offense under Todd Monken can toggle between heavy personnel and spread looks without tipping run or pass. Henry gives them downhill power that pairs with Lamar’s option threat, forcing edge defenders to choose between compressing inside or holding contain. Either choice has a cost.
Buffalo’s defense typically lives on disguise and leverage. They’ll spin safeties late, rotate into zone-match looks, and rally to tackle. The Bills want Jackson working underneath rather than ripping deep crossers off play-action. They’ll also try to close interior gaps before Henry settles into a rhythm. The chess match is less about trickery and more about fitting runs and tackling in space. A missed fit against Henry can become a 28-yard chunk. The same goes for Jackson’s scrambles when defenders turn their backs in match coverage.
On the other side, Baltimore’s defense has thrived with simulated pressures and smart post-snap movement, getting heat without blitzing at reckless rates. The goal against Allen is simple to say and hard to do: make him throw on time and out of structure less often. If Baltimore squeezes the pocket while keeping eyes on the quarterback, scramble lanes shrink. If they lose contain, Allen turns third-and-7 into a 12-yard jog and a first down. That’s the thin line under this 33.5 rushing number.
All of that sits under a high total. A 51.5 implies sustained drives and red-zone efficiency rather than just bombs and busts. The last playoff meeting hit 52 and still felt like it left a couple plays on the field. Same quarterbacks, similar scripts, and two defenses that prefer to force long fields rather than concede explosives.
Prop-by-prop breakdown: Lamar, Allen, Henry
- Ravens vs Bills
Lamar Jackson under 233.5 passing yards (-111)
This number bakes in Baltimore’s shifting identity. With Henry onboard, the Ravens don’t need Jackson throwing 35 times to move the ball. Expect heavier personnel, more gap schemes, and play-action shots that are selective rather than frequent. Buffalo’s coverage structure thrives at keeping throws short and contesting yards after the catch. If Baltimore plays from ahead or even on script, Jackson’s attempts can sit in the mid-20s. That puts 233.5 in play for the under even in an efficient night. The obvious risk is game flow: if Buffalo jumps out and forces a pass-heavy second half, Jackson’s volume spikes. Another swing factor is the scramble-to-throw balance—if he tucks and runs when edges widen, that’s fewer air yards and more clock draining.
Josh Allen under 33.5 rushing yards (-110)
Allen’s legs are a pressure release, a red-zone weapon, and a third-down problem for everyone. But Week 1 is where teams often throttle designed QB runs to limit early hits. Against Baltimore, contain and spy looks usually come with disciplined edges and a second-level defender ready to close. If the Ravens lean zone coverage on money downs, scramble yards can get capped because eyes are on the quarterback and rally angles are better. The number itself is honest—Allen can clear 34 on four scrambles—but if Baltimore’s rush plan emphasizes cage rushes and inside leverage, the path to the under is there. The danger is short-yardage usage; two keeper conversions and one off-script rip can flip this quickly.
Derrick Henry over 80.5 rushing yards (-115)
Volume and style point to the over. Baltimore’s line is built to run gap and duo, a natural fit for Henry’s tempo and cut timing. Against a defense that prefers sound fits over constant run blitzing, the early carries matter. If Henry settles into 18–22 attempts, 80.5 is reachable at a modest 4.2 yards per carry. He’s also not a strict early-down rental; his pass protection keeps him on the field, which preserves carry count in long drives. The risk is game script—if Buffalo forces a two-score chase late in the third quarter, the run mix thins. There’s also the debut factor: if Baltimore manages his snap share slightly in Week 1, you need efficiency to carry the bet. Still, his 2024 form (1,921 rush yards and a league-best 16 rushing TDs) explains why books won’t hang a soft number.
Additional angles
• Zay Flowers over/under 58.5 receiving yards: Flowers is Baltimore’s quickest separator. Buffalo’s zone-match asks receivers to win patience routes and settle in windows. If Baltimore leans play-action, Flowers’ in-breakers and crossers become high-value snaps, but his yardage can be volatile if the Ravens stick with heavier sets.
• James Cook over/under 54.5 rushing yards: Cook’s efficiency has been strong when Buffalo gets hat-on-hat in zone. The issue is volume. If the Bills chase points or lean into quick game, carries can stall in the 12–15 range. He can clear 55 on 14 carries if explosives pop, but negative scripts turn this fragile.
Touchdowns and totals
Both Jackson and Allen sit at 1.5 passing TDs. That’s a nod to red-zone variety for both teams. Baltimore can punch with Henry behind heavy bodies or use Lamar on keepers. Buffalo has size at the goal line and designs that free Allen on the edges. The total at 51.5 assumes both offenses sustain two to three touchdown drives each with a couple field goals. If you believe the run games control pace and shorten the contest, the under has a case even in a well-played game.
Correlation to consider
• If you like Henry over, Jackson passing unders and Ravens time-of-possession angles make more sense.
• If you like Allen rushing under, Bills receiver overs or Allen passing attempts over correlate with a pass-first script.
• If you like the game over, fading the lowest-volume rush props can help avoid double counting clock drain.
What will tip this either way?
1) Early downs on Baltimore’s first two drives. If Henry is getting four to six yards on first down, the Ravens can live in second-and-manageable, which keeps Lamar’s attempts down and Henry’s carry count on track.
2) Baltimore’s contain on third-and-medium. Force Allen to hit rhythm throws to the sideline and you cap scramble value. Lose contain once or twice and the rushing prop can swing in one series.
3) Red-zone choices. Designs for Allen at the goal line don’t rack up yards but do threaten anytime TD markets. For Henry, inside the five is where his value spikes and where Baltimore can tilt the night in their favor.
One last note on process: shop your numbers. We’ve already seen Henry posted at 80.5 in some spots and 82.5 in others, which can be the difference between a push and a sweat. Jackson’s pass yardage and Allen’s rush yardage can float a few yards either direction as kickoff nears, especially after final inactives are posted. Bankroll-wise, keep props to smaller unit sizes in Week 1. Rotations and snap counts can be a little noisy out of the gate, even for stars.
However you slice it, this opener gives us clean leans rooted in style, not hope. Baltimore wants to tilt the field with power, option, and clock. Buffalo wants to stress spacing and bet on Allen’s decision-making. Those identities drive the props, and on a September night in Orchard Park, that’s where the edges usually live.